![[Picture: Judy Alster]](/images/judy-alster-250x300.jpg)
"Buy good stocks. Know your stop-price. Keep protecting your
profits as your stocks move up."
"My three rules of investment writing:
Clarity. Brevity. Profit."
Hi, I'm Judy Alster and I'm the Senior Analyst for 21st Century Investor
To tell you the truth, I'm a little on the shy side. Right now, instead of
doing this, I'd rather be finding a dozen stocks on their way up and telling
our subscribers about them.
But James DiGeorgia, publisher of 21st Century Investor, asked me
to tell you a little about myself and my investing philosophy. Also about how I
got to this point, what I do for our subscribers, and how I've been succeeding
at it. So here goes:
What I do is analyze and recommend stocks - stocks that are headed up for at
least a few months and sometimes longer. Every month I recommend buying about
eight or 10 of them in the 21st Century Investor newsletter. When
I think they've maximized their profit potential I recommend selling them. My
profit record is good; in fact it's quite good. I'll get to that in a moment.
Mainly, I'm a "fundamentalist." I look at the company itself. I find
companies in growing sectors of the economy, or sectors that look like they're
about to grow, with the chance of dominating that sector for a while. The
companies I like are usually making a profit on increasing revenue - or what's
sometimes even better as far as the stock market is concerned, they're just
beginning to make a profit after several quarters of losses. I prefer earnings
that are solid operating profit, not tax benefits or proceeds from asset sales.
The companies I recommend generally have cash flow from operations. And after
every single expense is paid they still have cash - this "free cash
flow" can work wonders for the stock price. The companies I like best have
management that's sharp and fearless. I find that when management makes tough
or even painful decisions, like selling non-performing divisions, or
restructuring, or even taking on some debt to make an important acquisition, it
often has a positive effect on the stock price. Short selling is something I
recommend rarely, if ever.
Now, it's great to find a hot or soon-to-be-hot company that Wall Street is just
beginning to pay attention to. And one of the biggest thrills is when the stock
is undervalued and really starts taking off, soaring 30%, 40% or even 50% in a
couple of months.
But I don't mind a company who's under Wall Street's radar entirely. A good
company will eventually get noticed.
Here are the profits subscribers have taken on some of my recommendations just
since October 2003:
-
68% on IDX Systems
-
101% on Central European Distribution
-
53% on Vimpel Communications
-
34% on Arthrocare Corp.
-
77% on China Yuchai
-
20% on Closure Medical
-
69% on Cyberonics
-
31% on Diodes, Inc.
-
28% on PetroKazakhstan
-
58% on F5 Networks
My dividend plays are a little different. With dividend yielding stocks I don't
always insist on capital appreciation, and I'll generally hold the stock as
long as the dividend is good. But I still look for extraordinarily sharp
management and a promising sector. I firmly believe that every portfolio should
always have at least one good dividend-yielding stock. Currently my
Portfolio holds four excellent ones. Three have had surprisingly good run-ups
in price. All have terrific dividends.
My training and background are in journalism and marketing. I've been
researching and investing in stocks for my own portfolio for 20 years. Three
years ago James diGeorgia hired me as a researcher and copywriter. My job was
to analyze stocks that other stock pickers picked, and to write about them for
our publications. After a while I wrote about a few stocks I had researched on
my own, and they did pretty well. So I wrote about a few more of my own stocks,
and most of them did well too. Time passed in that fashion, more and more of my
stocks doing well . . . and eventually they made me Senior Editor and put my
picture on the cover of 21st Century Investor newsletter. (I
admit, it was gratifying.)
I surely don't expect every subscriber to invest in every stock I recommend.
That would be over 100 stocks a year; the commissions alone would put you in
the poorhouse. What I do every month is present stocks in a number of sectors
and in several price ranges. The emphasis in on value, although I do give space
to growth stocks. My intention is to let readers choose according to their own
investment goals and preferences, their patience, and their tolerance for risk.
Furthermore, I never just recommend stocks and then leave subscribers to sink or
swim. This is real money people are putting on the line. I believe in
some post-recommendation guidance and even a little hand-holding. So for every
stock I recommend, I give you a stop-loss price; that is, a price 12% or 15%
under the stock's purchase price. If the stock drops to that price, you know
you should sell. And sometimes it happens: I have my clunkers, just like
everybody else. But except in the case of two current very low-priced
Special Situations, you will never lose more than 12% on a stock I recommend,
and never more than 15% on a low-priced stock, if you stick to those
stop prices.
There's more. My responsibilities don't stop with the monthly newsletter, which
appears on our Web site as well as in paper format. I also maintain an online
Portfolio. This is a performance monitor that gives you the profit/loss
percentage for sold positions, and the profit or loss on open positions, for
every single 21st Century Investor recommendation from October
2002 to today.
The Portfolio is updated at the end of every trading day and is valuable as more
than just a tracking device. When a stock has made a respectable profit, I will
tell you how to protect it with a moved-up stop price: Check the Portfolio and
you'll find out if the stock has a new profit-protecting stop price, and what
that new price is. The Portfolio will also tell you when I've sold a stock that
looks like it's running out of steam.
So not only will you never lose more than12% or 15% - you'll never hold onto a
profitable stock too long and watch your profit evaporate.
The Portfolio is an incredibly valuable feature. We haven't seen anything like
it in any other stock-recommending service.